SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
Issue Date: 216 PM CST MON DEC 21 2009
Expiration: 1200 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009
...A LATE WEEK STORM WILL BRING SNOW...WINDS...AND BITTER COLD...
THE INGREDIENTS FOR A HAZARDOUS WINTER STORM WILL CONVERGE ON THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK. THE STORM WILL BE DRIVEN BY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. BOTH WILL INTENSIFY
WHILE THEY TRACK FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE STRONG LIFT AND
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...AND LASTING WELL INTO
THURSDAY.
INITIALLY...THE AIR WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN AT MOST LOCATIONS.
COLD AIR WILL THEN RUSH IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. RAIN WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW BEGINNING IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL PROCEED TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND
SHOULD REACH WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UP THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. BEFORE THE STORM EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT...EVEN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE A CHANCE AT SEEING SNOW.
THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN...HOWEVER...IS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM ELK CITY TO CLINTON...TO
KINGFISHER AND STILLWATER. PARTS OF THAT REGION WILL SEE THE
EARLIEST CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...AND OTHER PARTS WILL SEE SNOW PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. A SECONDARY AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE FROM
QUANAH TEXAS... TO ALTUS AND LAWTON... TOWARDS CHICKASHA OKLAHOMA
WHERE AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY COLD AIR ARRIVES...AND
HOW LONG THE STORM LASTS. AT A MINIMUM...IT APPEARS THAT SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY...AND THAT INCREASINGLY BLUSTERY WINDS WILL
CAUSE BLOWING SNOW...LOW VISIBILITY...AND LOW WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES. AS THE FORECAST INTENSITY OF SNOW AND WINDS COMES INTO
FOCUS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PART OF THE REGION.
LOOKING BEYOND THURSDAY...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HAZARDOUS
WINTER WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST EVEN AFTER THE STORM EXITS. IT IS
VERY LIKELY THAT A LARGE MASS OF ARCTIC AIR...THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON...WILL OVERSPREAD ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES MAY BECOME DANGEROUSLY LOW...AND AIR
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA COULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING FOR AS LONG AS THREE OR FOUR DAYS.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 139 PM CST MON DEC 21 2009
Expiration: 500 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...
A MILD AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST TUESDAY DEC 22.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...AND SOUTH WINDS WILL PULL GULF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL GENERATE
STRONG LIFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LARGE HAIL.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE LOW
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FORECASTS HAVE NARROWED TOWARD A MORE CONFIDENT SOLUTION REGARDING
THE TRACK OF AN IMPENDING STORM SYSTEM. FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS
FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UP THROUGH SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS COLD AIR RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. THIS STORM IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A SECOND AREA OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN A ZONE FROM
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. DURING THE STORM...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY BLUSTERY.
THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE STRONGLY AFFECTED BY HOW
QUICKLY COLD AIR ARRIVES...AND THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE STORM.
WHEN THE STORM EXITS A LARGE MASS OF ARCTIC AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE LOW AND AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR SEVERAL DAYS
BEGINNING THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
TUESDAY.
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