HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 1134 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2009
Expiration: 400 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2009
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REINFORCE A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS.
PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST SATURDAY DEC 19.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...ZERO PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
GULF MOISTURE WILL RETURN BRIEFLY INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEXT
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
THERE IS A GROWING LIKELIHOOD THAT ARCTIC AIR WILL BREAK LOOSE FROM
ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THIS COULD BE THE
COLDEST AIR TO VISIT THE PLAINS YET THIS WINTER SEASON. THE STRENGTH
OF THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...COMBINED WITH DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE...COULD YIELD DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES...
BELOW ZERO DEGREES IN PART OF THE REGION...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
STRONG FRONTS SUCH AS THIS USUALLY ALSO PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT ICE
AND SNOWFALL. IN THE PRESENT CASE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO
FORECAST TO ENTER THE PLAINS AROUND THE SAME TIME THAT THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES. THIS MAY RESULT IN A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL
ICE OR SNOW...BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE SIGNIFICANCE
OF ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
5 AM SATURDAY.
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