HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
Warning Issue Date: 446 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS WEEK...
A MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...RAIN PRODUCTION FROM THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT.
AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WATER LEVELS IN AREA RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY LOW...AND NO RIVER
FLOODING IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THIS RAINFALL. HOWEVER...
ELEVATED FLOWS MAY BE EXPERIENCED ON SOME OF THE FASTER RESPONDING
STREAMS AND RIVERS.
ADDITIONALLY...SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES...UPWARDS OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR.
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED
EFFECTS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST STORMS. THIS WILL
INCLUDE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.
PEOPLE IN THE AFFECTED AREAS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL...AND MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION FOR ANY
STATEMENTS...WATCHES OR WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED.
$$
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
Warning Issue Date: 401 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS UP TO 50 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST GULF OF
MEXICO TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL BECOMING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN REMAIN
STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS IN COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF WIND DRIVEN TIDES AND LARGE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE A RAPID RISE IN WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO
4 FEET FROM LOW TIDE IN THE MORNING TO HIGH TIDE IN THE EVENING
TUESDAY. MINOR INUNDATION OF COASTAL AND ESTUARY AREAS ARE LIKELY
OUTSIDE OF HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES AND NEAR THE TIDAL LAKES.
WATER LEVELS WILL DROP AND END THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT PROPERTY.
$$
24/RR
FLASH FLOOD WATCH
Warning Issue Date: 354 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...
LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...
ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...
UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD AND UPPER TERREBONNE. IN
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...HANCOCK...HARRISON AND JACKSON.
* FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
* A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD AND STEADY
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BAND OF HIGHER AMOUNTS BETWEEN 4 AND 6
INCHES MAY DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI COASTAL COUNTIES
AND LOWER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RUN OFF WILL
CAUSE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS TO SWELL TO HIGHER LEVELS AND
POSSIBLY CAUSE A FEW TO FLOOD INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IN
ADDITION...ANTICIPATED STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT MAY
COMPOUND RIVER RISES DUE TO TIDAL AFFECTS UNTIL WINDS SHIFT TO
AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
$$
24/RR
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