SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
Issue Date: 1006 PM CST MON DEC 21 2009
Expiration: 600 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009
...LATE WEEK STORM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND COLDER AIR... AND
MAYBE SOME SNOW...
HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW... INTENSIFY AND TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RESULT IN A COLD
AND BLUSTERY CHRISTMAS EVE WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
WIND AND COLD WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS
DECREASE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. BUT IT WILL STILL BE A COLD CHRISTMAS...
WITH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NOT LIKELY TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S.
COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO INVADE NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE
REST OF THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA BY THE END OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THE COLDER AIR WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEST COMPUTER FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THE STORM SYSTEM MIGHT TRACK
FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD STILL ALLOW WIND AND COLD TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK... BUT WOULD PULL DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA
AND REDUCE THE CHANCES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR SNOW. BUT IT STILL
APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT THE STORM WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK... FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. ON THIS TRACK... THE POTENTIAL WOULD BE HIGHER FOR MOIST
AIR TO WRAP AROUND THE STORM.
INITIALLY... THE AIR WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN AT MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. BUT AS THE COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW APPEARS TO BE OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE EXACT STORM TRACK THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL SHIFT FARTHER NORTH OR SOUTH BY THURSDAY.
SNOWFALL TOTALS... IF ANY... WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY COLD AIR
ARRIVES... AND HOW LONG THE STORM LASTS. AT A MINIMUM...IT APPEARS
THAT SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY... AND THAT INCREASINGLY
BLUSTERY WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW... LOW VISIBILITY... AND LOW
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. AS THE FORECAST INTENSITY OF SNOW AND WINDS
COMES INTO FOCUS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PART OF
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.
LOOKING BEYOND THURSDAY...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HAZARDOUS
WINTER WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST EVEN AFTER THE STORM EXITS. IT IS
VERY LIKELY THAT A LARGE MASS OF ARCTIC AIR... THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON...WILL OVERSPREAD ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES MAY BECOME DANGEROUSLY LOW... AND AIR
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA COULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING FOR AS LONG AS THREE OR FOUR DAYS.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 139 PM CST MON DEC 21 2009
Expiration: 500 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...
A MILD AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST TUESDAY DEC 22.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...AND SOUTH WINDS WILL PULL GULF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL GENERATE
STRONG LIFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LARGE HAIL.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE LOW
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FORECASTS HAVE NARROWED TOWARD A MORE CONFIDENT SOLUTION REGARDING
THE TRACK OF AN IMPENDING STORM SYSTEM. FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS
FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UP THROUGH SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS COLD AIR RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. THIS STORM IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A SECOND AREA OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN A ZONE FROM
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. DURING THE STORM...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY BLUSTERY.
THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE STRONGLY AFFECTED BY HOW
QUICKLY COLD AIR ARRIVES...AND THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE STORM.
WHEN THE STORM EXITS A LARGE MASS OF ARCTIC AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE LOW AND AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR SEVERAL DAYS
BEGINNING THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
TUESDAY.
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