HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 553 AM EST WED DEC 2 2009
Expiration: 600 PM EST WED DEC 02 2009
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT A LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THE PARAMETERS THAT ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE AND
TORNADIC STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGEST ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA... IT APPEARS AS THERE WILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY...STRONG
LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS...AND SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR VALUES...FOR
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MAINTAIN MUCH
OF ITS INTENSITY AS TRAVELS EASTWARD AND REACHES EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS OUTLINED BY THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER...IS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAKE
KISSIMMEE TO JUST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...OR FROM CENTRAL
OSCEOLA COUNTY AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY NORTHWARD. HOWEVER THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS OR TORNADOES INCLUDES ALL OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA.
WHILE THE EXACT TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...AT THIS TIME
THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHERN LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES
SOMETIME AFTER SUNSET...BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A FEW
STORMS OR BANDS OF STORMS MAY FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SQUALL
LINE AROUND...OR A LITTLE BEFORE SUNSET.
THE LINE WILL THEN SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERSTATE FOUR
CORRIDOR FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND THEN
PERHAPS WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
IN ADDITION TO DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...A
FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
OR ACQUIRING ROTATION...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD
OR TORNADO. PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD STAY INFORMED
OF THE WEATHER EXPECTED LATER TODAY. BE PREPARED TO MOVE INDOORS
TO A PLACE OF SAFETY WELL IN ADVANCE OF STORMS.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR RADIO
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS
CONCERNING THIS SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
...FLOOD IMPACT...
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED AS STORMS PASS TONIGHT. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY HAVE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR POORLY DRAINED AREAS
WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN SPOTS.
...HIGH WIND IMPACT...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXIST FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
EVENING FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH ARE LIKELY.
...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
STORMS OVER THE MARINE AREAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAY
PRODUCE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING STRIKES.
INLAND LAKES ARE NOT IMMUNE FROM THE EFFECTS OF STRONG STORMS AND
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CAN QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER LAKES WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE
HARBOR WELL BEFORE A STORM APPROACHES YOUR AREA.
...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD ALSO BE ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
WATERSPOUTS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BOTH NEAR SHORE AND
OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM FLAGLER
BEACH THROUGH JUPITER INLET. SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FEET WELL AWAY FROM THE COAST.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. MANY AREAS ARE FORECAST TO RECEIVE A BENEFICIAL SOAKING
RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT PRODUCING 3 INCHES OR MORE WHERE
CONVECTION TRAINS OVER THE SAME AREAS.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER. FORMAL ACTIVATION MAY BE
NEEDED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
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