HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 919 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009
Expiration: 700 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...NORTHWEST
FLORIDA...AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND CHRISTMAS EVE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL EXCEED 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS ON CHRISTMAS EVE. SEAS FROM 7 TO 11 FEET
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH ROUGH CONDITIONS ON THE
BAYS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ON
CHRISTMAS EVE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING. WHILE THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT WIND ENERGY IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER...THE THREAT WILL BE MITIGATED BY A LACK OF INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO
EXISTS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO PRIMARILY TO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF
THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING APPEARS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.
SOME FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG SEVERAL AREA RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON TUESDAY...MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. IF THIS PATTERN
HOLDS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE MARINE AREA WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL
NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED IN SOME AREAS ON
CHRISTMAS EVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.
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