HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 1100 AM EST THU DEC 17 2009
Expiration: 400 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...RISK FOR ROTATING STORMS TO PRODUCE FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WATERSPOUTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
LATE THIS MORNING...DOPPLER RADARS WERE SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS OVER AND OFFSHORE COMMUNITIES
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY OCCURRING OVER
MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES. RADAR INDICATED THAT THE STRONGER
CELLS WERE EXHIBITING OCCASIONAL WEAK ROTATION. WITH THE BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO EARLY EVENING...THE FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE TREASURE
COAST COUNTIES...AS WELL AS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE MORE INTENSE
CELLS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND FUNNEL CLOUDS. A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
THE THREAT FOR ROTATING STORMS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT
AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE BEGINS TO PUSH TO
THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
...FLOOD IMPACT...
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH ACROSS EASTERN MARTIN COUNTY. LOCAL
PONDING OF WATER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS MARTIN...
OKEECHOBEE...SAINT LUCIE...AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
...BEFORE SHIFTING GRADUALLY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
LATE TONIGHT. VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR ALONG WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING WHERE RAIN PERSISTS.
...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
BEACHES TODAY. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD AND NEVER SWIM ALONE.
...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A FEW STORMS OVER THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING GRADUALLY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL
BE ALONG AND OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH
...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 25 KNOTS OFFSHORE
WILL BECOME EAST THEN SOUTHEAST INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
5 TO 7 FEET NEAR SHORE...UP TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
...RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CROSS
NORTH FLORIDA WHILE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...ALONG WITH STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL
WINDS AND AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PROFILE
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND TORNADOES DURING THE DAY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THURSDAY MORNING IS INDICATING THAT THE
LOW IS LIKELY TO BE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.
WHILE THE EXACT TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL REACH LAKE COUNTY
SOMETIME AROUND MID MORNING...THEN SHIFT RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS
ORANGE...OSCEOLA...SEMINOLE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES FROM LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SQUALL LINE WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS OKEECHOBEE
...BREVARD...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA
OUTLETS FOR POTENTIAL WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS...AS WELL
AS YOUR LOCAL FORECAST.
IF YOU OWN A WEATHER RADIO...NOW IS THE TIME TO MAKE SURE THAT IT
IS IN GOOD WORKING ORDER...CORRECTLY PROGRAMMED...AND HAS A FRESH
BATTERY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF
NEEDED LATE TONIGHT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION APPEARS LIKELY BY SOMETIME
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
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