HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 500 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009
Expiration: 1200 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SLIGHT RISK
IS GENERALLY EAST OF AN ARDMORE TO CHANDLER LINE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGIN WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
DISCUSSION...
AN UNSEASONABLY MILD AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AHEAD OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGER STORMS BUT
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS IT
BEGINS TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRENGTENING WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING
SUPECELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.
PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST THURSDAY DEC 24.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...40 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM WEST
TEXAS INTO MISSOURI. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
COLD TEMPERATURES...STRONG WINDS AND LOW WIND CHILL READINGS WILL
PREVAIL AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.
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