SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
Issue Date: 556 AM EST WED DEC 2 2009
Expiration: 700 PM EST WED DEC 02 2009
...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND COASTAL HAZARDS TODAY INTO
THURSDAY...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
TODAY. AHEAD OF THE LOW AN INCREASING MOIST
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THIS INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WILL HELP TO BUILD SEAS
AND GENERATE LARGE BREAKING WAVES...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH
SURF ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY INTO THURSDAY.
TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE ENTIRE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA...RANGING FROM AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL NEAR FORT
MYERS TO 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AROUND THE TAMPA BAY REGION...
TO 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE CITRUS AND
LEVY COUNTY COASTS. THESE ABOVE NORMAL TIDES COULD CAUSE SOME
COASTAL FLOODING AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NATURE COAST. THEREFORE...A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MANATEE COUNTY NORTHWARD THROUGH LEVY
COUNTY.
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND INCREASING SEAS WILL MAKE FOR
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS...AND
MARINERS...FISHERMEN...AND BOATING ENTHUSIASTS MAY WANT TO
POSTPONE TRIPS INTO THE GULF UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE IN
THE WEEK.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THIS AFTERNOON A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST.
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES TOWARD WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
CURRENT TIMING OF THIS FRONT WOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE NATURE COAST BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
SPREADING SOUTH INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BY MIDNIGHT.
AT THE CURRENT TIME SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
STRONG PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITHIN
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TAMPA
BAY AREA NORTH THROUGH THE NATURE COAST. THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
WATERSPOUTS. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.
ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 445 AM EST WED DEC 2 2009
Expiration: 445 PM EST WED DEC 02 2009
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTHEAST WILL MOVE NORTH
OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE
NATURE COAST BY TONIGHT BEFORE SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME SEVERE
STORMS FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD WHICH MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
STRONG SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPCOMING
FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS REGARDING THIS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS
WEATHER SITUATION.
...HIGH WIND IMPACT...
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO OVER 20 MPH ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL POSE HAZARDS
ON OR NEAR AREA LAKES. WINDS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WILL
CREATE ROUGH CONDITIONS ON LARGER AREA LAKES WHICH COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGE TO...OR FLIP...SMALL PLEASURE CRAFT.
...COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES FROM
MANATEE COUNTY NORTHWARD. SEAS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND HELP PUSH EXCESS WATER UP ALONG COASTAL
LOCATIONS. CURRENTLY THE WATER LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO TO RUN A
COUPLE FEET ABOVE PREDICTED TIDES. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE NOT BE
UPGRADED TO A WARNING DUE TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER WIND FIELD
FORECAST TODAY.
...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...STRONG UNDERTOWS...AND
LARGE BREAKING WAVES ALONG AREA BEACHES MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS SOUTH WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TIDES AFFECT
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD...OR PLAN ON OTHER
ACTIVITIES AWAY FROM THE BEACH.
...MARINE GUST IMPACT...
WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN ADDITION...STRONG GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY NEAR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING
THROUGH THE GULF WATERS ON THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE RISK OF
WATERSPOUTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THESE STORMS APPROACH THE
SHORE. MARINERS SHOULD CLOSER MONITOR THE CHANGING WEATHER
PATTERN.
...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE
TO THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO THE 8 TO 10
FOOT RANGE OFF SHORE AND THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE NEAR SHORE WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS AND 15 TO 20
KNOTS IN THE NEAR SHORE. HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CARRY THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. CHOPPY
OR ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY NEAR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT..
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
HOURS ON THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THESE STORMS WILL POSE EXTRA
DANGER SINCE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AREAS FROM PASCO
COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. RESIDENTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPCOMING FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS REGARDING
THIS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WEATHER SITUATION.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.
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