HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 512 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009
Expiration: 500 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009
...STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
CHRISTMAS...
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.
FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 6 PM.
HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 6 PM.
SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
ONSET...LATE TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING
TORNADOES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
RESIDE AND THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS BEING SURFACE
BASED. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
UNTIL 9 PM. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR A VINITA TO ARDMORE LINE
AT 5 PM. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL. THE MOST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...AND
THEREFORE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THESE
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...WITH INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE.
COLD NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EMERGENCY MANAGERS MAY NEED TO ACTIVATE THEIR
SEVERE WEATHER PLANS TONIGHT WHILE ALSO PREPARING FOR A QUICK
CHANGE TO WINTER WEATHER OPERATIONS FOR TOMORROW.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
CHRISTMAS DAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH THE
PASSING UPPER STORM SYSTEM. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS A FORECAST TRACK
OF THE UPPER LOW THAT WOULD FAVOR HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO
6 INCHES PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTH OF INTERSTATE
40...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. GUTSY NORTHWEST WINDS
UP TO 35 MPH WILL ALSO CAUSE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR ANY
AREAS THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THESE HIGH WINDS WILL
ALSO CREATE LOW WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED
IN LATER FORECASTS. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND POINTS
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SNOW RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
WINTER WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR ALL BUT
FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...AND ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED. REMAIN IN CONTACT WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TULSA TO PASS ALONG ANY WEATHER REPORTS...AND TO STAY
ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS.
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
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