SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
Issue Date: 636 AM CST MON DEC 21 2009
Expiration: 100 PM CST MON DEC 21 2009
...A LATE WEEK STORM WILL BRING SNOW...WINDS...AND BITTER COLD...
THE INGREDIENTS FOR A HAZARDOUS WINTER STORM WILL CONVERGE ON THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK. THE STORM WILL BE DRIVEN BY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. BOTH WILL INTENSIFY
WHILE THEY TRACK FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE STRONG LIFT AND
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...AND LASTING WELL INTO
THURSDAY.
INITIALLY...THE AIR WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN AT MOST LOCATIONS.
COLD AIR WILL THEN RUSH IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. RAIN WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW BEGINNING IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL PROCEED TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND
SHOULD REACH WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UP THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. BEFORE THE STORM EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT...EVEN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE A CHANCE AT SEEING SNOW.
THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN...HOWEVER...IS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM ELK CITY TO CLINTON...TO
KINGFISHER AND STILLWATER. PARTS OF THAT REGION WILL SEE THE
EARLIEST CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...AND OTHER PARTS WILL SEE SNOW PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
COLD AIR ARRIVES...AND HOW LONG THE STORM LASTS. AT A MINIMUM...IT
APPEARS THAT SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY...AND THAT INCREASINGLY
BLUSTERY WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW...LOW VISIBILITY...AND LOW
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. AS THE FORECAST INTENSITY OF SNOW AND
WINDS COMES INTO FOCUS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR
PART OF THE REGION.
LOOKING BEYOND THURSDAY...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HAZARDOUS
WINTER WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST EVEN AFTER THE STORM EXITS. IT IS
VERY LIKELY THAT A LARGE MASS OF ARCTIC AIR...THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON...WILL OVERSPREAD ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES MAY BECOME DANGEROUSLY LOW...AND AIR TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR AS LONG AS THREE OR FOUR DAYS.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 448 AM CST MON DEC 21 2009
Expiration: 1200 PM CST MON DEC 21 2009
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...
BY LATE TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL JUST BEGIN TO DRAW UP
INCREASING GULF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE CAPPED BY WARM AND STABLE AIR...AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST TUESDAY DEC 22.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
AREAS OF FOG MAY ACCOMPANY THE RETURNING MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT IN
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...AND SOUTH WINDS WILL PULL GULF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL GENERATE
STRONG LIFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LARGE HAIL.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BITTER COLD WILL THEN AFFECT ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN THE DAYS FOLLOWING THE STORM.
FORECASTS HAVE NARROWED TOWARD A MORE CONFIDENT SOLUTION REGARDING
THE TRACK OF AN IMPENDING STORM SYSTEM. FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS
FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UP THROUGH SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS COLD AIR RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. THIS STORM IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. DURING THE STORM...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BLUSTERY.
THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE STRONGLY AFFECTED BY HOW
QUICKLY COLD AIR ARRIVES...AND THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE STORM.
FORECASTS WILL BE UPDATED...AND A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE
ISSUED...AS THESE DETAILS COME INTO FOCUS.
WHEN THE STORM EXITS...A LARGE MASS OF ARCTIC AIR...THE COLDEST YET
THIS SEASON...WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION. WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES MAY BECOME DANGEROUSLY LOW...AND AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING THURSDAY.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.
|
|
|
