HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 601 AM CST MON DEC 21 2009
Expiration: 615 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A STRONG...COMPLEX AND LONG DURATION STORM SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING
THE REGION STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOULD GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION BY
TONIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES ON SHORE IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.
AT THIS TIME...LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE INITIAL
INFLUX OF MOISTURE AT LOWER LEVELS ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH
DRIZZLE FURTHER SOUTH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE WITH THE AID OF AN INITIAL IMPULSE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING IN NORTHERN MISSOURI...FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE FED
NORTHWARD...WHICH SHOULD CHANGE ANY FREEZING RAIN IN MISSOURI OVER TO
RAIN. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME THUNDER IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST
MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS MAY BEGIN TO SWITCH OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN OR SNOW...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN AS RAIN.
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE MORE
RAIN...BUT TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN NORTHWEST
MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. THIS RAIN ON THURSDAY...OCCURRING
AFTER THE RAIN ALREADY RECEIVED ON WEDNESDAY MAY CAUSE FLOODING
ISSUES ON SOME OF THE AREA RIVERS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI.
BY LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOVING PAST...WITH COLDER AIR STARTING TO PUSH IN FROM EASTERN KANSAS
TO WESTERN MISSOURI. THIS SHOULD CAUSE A RAPID CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN
TO SNOW...WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ESTIMATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND
THIS STORM MAY ALSO CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WHERE ANY HEAVIER
SNOWFALL MAY OCCUR.
LIGHTER SNOW MAY LINGER ON FRIDAY AS WELL...AS MUCH COLDER AIR
OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
AGAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THIS SYSTEM...AND THE FORECAST
DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME REVISIONS AS LATER FORECAST
DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE. EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND OTHER INTERESTED
PARTIES SHOULD MONITOR FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. BUT SNOW AND ICE REPORTS WILL
BE NEEDED AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
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