SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
Issue Date: 248 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2009
Expiration: 400 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009
...MAJOR STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
A MAJOR STORM IS ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS STORM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. A VARIETY OF
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THIS PERIOD.
WARM AND MOIST AIR IS BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET DRAWN NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND...AND
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE GREATEST SOUTH
OF I-40 AT THIS TIME. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF HIGHWAY 69 WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS. FLASH FLOODING IS
LIKELY IF THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.
COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THURSDAY AND THIS
WILL BEGIN TO TURN THE RAIN TO SNOW WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 AND NORTH
OF I-40. THE AIR WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW BY THURSDAY
EVENING ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AT
THIS TIME AND BASED ON THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK OF THE
STORM...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412
BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVIER SNOW IS
LIKELY TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THE STORM WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND AND THIS WIND COMBINED
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S DURING THE DAYTIME FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS VERY COMPLICATED AND ONLY A SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE IN ITS TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ITS IMPACTS. THUS...STAYING ABREAST OF
UPDATED FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...IS ADVISED FOR THOSE INTERESTED.
MORE DETAILED FORECAST INFORMATION...INCLUDING GRAPHICS...CAN BE
FOUND ON OUR WEBPAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/TULSA
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 104 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2009
Expiration: 500 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009
...STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS EVE...
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
ONSET...AFTER 6 PM.
DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AS A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND SPREADS ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...
WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT BEING LARGE HAIL.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
CHRISTMAS DAY...HIGH WIND AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILL POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST FOR A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH THESE
STORMS IMPACTING ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INDICATES THE THREAT OF ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-40...WHILE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY IMPACT TO THE NORTH WHERE
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MORE ELEVATED. HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO APPEARS
LIKELY ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BEFORE THIS ROUND OF STORMS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE ATTENTION WILL THEN FOCUS ON THE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW DEVELOPING
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION. BY THIS TIME THE AIRMASS
WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A TRANSITION TO SNOW. THE BEST
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ON FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE TRACK OF THE
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...AND LATER FORECASTS WILL CONTINUALLY UPDATE
SNOW AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY AS THE STRONG STORM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS COULD RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EARLY
CHRISTMAS MORNING.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY...
AND CONSIDER POSSIBLE TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
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