HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 105 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009
Expiration: 500 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009
...INTENSE STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MULTIPLE HAZARDS THROUGH CHRISTMAS...
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
ONSET...AFTER 3 PM.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING...INCREASING AFTER 3 PM.
FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 6 PM.
WINTER WEATHER.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA METRO.
ONSET...LATE TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF WESTERN ARKANSAS AND
FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA FOR THE TIME BEING...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
FROM NEAR PONCA CITY TO ARDMORE. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE
ACTIVITY CONTINUING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY AND
WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES...
WITH THESE CONDITIONS SUPPORTING A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AREA-
WIDE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE A POTENTIAL IMPACT FOR ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS WILL BE NEARER THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THIS
WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS TO BE BASED NEARER THE SURFACE.
SHOULD STORMS IN THIS REGION EXPERIENCE THESE MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS...THEN THE POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
POTENTIALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK IS LIKELY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND
POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS WIND CHILL POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS
WIND CHILL POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH THE
PASSING UPPER STORM SYSTEM. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS A FORECAST TRACK
OF THE UPPER LOW THAT WOULD FAVOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR. GUTSY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO
35 MPH WILL ALSO CAUSE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR ANY AREAS THAT
RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
THE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED
IN LATER FORECASTS. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND POINTS
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SNOW RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
WINTER WEATHER WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR ALL BUT FAR
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED. REMAIN IN CONTACT WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TULSA TO PASS ALONG ANY WEATHER REPORTS...AND TO STAY ABREAST OF
THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS.
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
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