HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 935 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009
Expiration: 500 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009
...STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
CHRISTMAS...
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.
FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.
HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.
SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...WEST OF AN OKEMAH TO BARTLESVILLE LINE.
ONSET...LATE TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...
WHILE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS DECREASED SOME OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...ENOUGH INSTABILITY...WIND SHEAR...AND MOISTURE
REMAIN FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS
ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. ANY STORMS THAT
BECOME SEVERE WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED...WITH HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...WITH
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.
COLD NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE LOCAL SPOTTER NETWORK POSSIBLE. EMERGENCY
MANAGERS MAY NEED TO ACTIVATE THEIR SEVERE WEATHER PLANS TONIGHT
WHILE ALSO PREPARING FOR A CHANGE TO WINTER WEATHER OPERATIONS
FOR TOMORROW.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH THE
PASSING UPPER STORM SYSTEM. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS A FORECAST TRACK
OF THE UPPER LOW THAT WOULD FAVOR HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO
6 INCHES PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTH OF INTERSTATE
40...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...A MORE
SOUTHERLY STORM TRACK IS POSSIBLE AND THIS WOULD LEAD TO HIGHER
SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. GUTSY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WILL ALSO CAUSE NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL. THESE HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO CREATE LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
THURSDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED
IN LATER FORECASTS. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SNOW RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
WINTER WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR ALL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED. REMAIN IN CONTACT
WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA TO PASS ALONG ANY
WEATHER REPORTS...AND TO STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER
FORECASTS.
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
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