HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 600 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009
Expiration: 600 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...NORTHWEST
FLORIDA...AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS MOVING NORTH OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE AS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER TODAY. THERE IS SUFFICIENT
SHEAR NEAR THE SURFACE FOR ROTATING STORMS TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY
SPAWN AN ISOLATED TORNADO...GENERALLY FROM SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT WIND ENERGY IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT THE THREAT WILL BE MITIGATED BY WEAK INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALONG
THE LINE WILL EXISTS. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL END BY LATE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE
REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE AREA STARTING AT 9 AM
TODAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO OCCASIONALLY 30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUST ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATER TODAY
AND DIMINISHING THIS EVENING TO WESTERLY AT 10 TO 20 MPH AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES.
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
TO 10 FEET THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AS THEY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
LATER TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
AREA BEACHES WILL SEE A ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
TODAY.
SOME FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG SEVERAL AREA RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON TUESDAY...MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. IF THIS PATTERN
HOLDS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE MARINE AREA WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL
NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED IN SOME AREAS ON
CHRISTMAS EVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.
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