HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 1145 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009
Expiration: 1100 AM CST WED DEC 02 2009
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
LATE THIS EVENING...WITH SMALLER MESO LOW NOTED JUST OFF THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST. THE MESO LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH THE PRIMARY LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN LOUISIANA AND INTO MISSISSIPPI THROUGH MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A VARIETY
OF HAZARDS TO THE REGION.
WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...WARM
MOIST AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH LATE TONIGHT...CREATING AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD SUNRISE. LARGE
AREA OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY
OVER COASTAL COUNTIES OF ALABAMA AND FLORIDA AND OFFSHORE GULF
WATERS WILL MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL ALSO BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.
BOTH OF THESE AREAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...PRIMARILY SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 84 AND FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. THE BEST THREAT
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE...WHERE A GREATER
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP. THERE REMAINS A RISK
OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS...ESPECIALLY AFTER ABOUT 4 AM.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL EXISTS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 65. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. EARLIER FORECAST OF LOCALIZED 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL
LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT HIGH...BUT WITH THE NEXT ROUND TO THE WEST
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AN ADDITIONAL
3 TO 5 INCHES COULD STILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS
COMMON ALONG THE COAST. SOME GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 49 KNOTS HAVE
OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION. WE
EXPECT THAT SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE CHANGING FROM EASTERLY
TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY...THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL
INCREASE...EVEN THOUGH THE TIMES OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES OCCURRED
EARLIER IN THE EVENING. AT MIDNIGHT...TIDES WERE RUNNING ABOUT 2
FEET ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS. TOTAL TIDE HEIGHTS OF
3 TO 5 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF PENSACOLA...WITH TOTAL TIDE
HEIGHTS EAST OF PENSACOLA TO DESTIN RANGING FROM 2 TO 3 FEET. A
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION
TO THE HIGH WATER LEVELS...A LARGE POUNDING SURF WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR SMALL CRAFT...WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE MARINE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
OFFSHORE WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE BUILT TO NEAR 12 FEET THIS EVENING...AND
MAY CLIMB TO AROUND 15 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GALE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A FEW STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE OCCURRING OVER THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE BY MIDDAY AS THE LOW
QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
OVER THE MARINE AREA...THE STRONG WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
AFTER GALE CONDITIONS EASE ON WEDNESDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW 7 FEET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK...CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT AGAIN.
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE
WEEK AND BRINGS THE RISK OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT TRHOUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
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